19 Jan

Canadian Inflation Rises to 3.4% Y/Y In December

Inflation News

Posted by: Yen (Frank) Feng

A Bumpy Road To The Inflation Target

Canada’s headline inflation number for December ’23 moved up three bps to 3.4%, as expected, as gasoline prices didn’t fall as fast as a year ago. These so-called base effects were also evident in the earlier US inflation data for the same month.

Additional acceleration came from airfares, fuel oil, passenger vehicles and rent. Prices for food purchased from stores rose 4.7% yearly in December, matching the increase in November (+4.7%). Moderating the acceleration in the all-items CPI were lower prices for travel tours.

On a monthly basis, the CPI fell 0.3% in December after a 0.1% gain in November. Lower month-over-month price movements for travel tours (-18.2%) and gasoline (-4.4%) contributed to the monthly decline. The CPI rose 0.3% in December on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis.

Two key yearly inflation measures that are tracked closely by the Bank of Canada and filter out components with more volatile price fluctuations — the so-called trim and median core rates — increased, averaging 3.65%, from an upwardly revised 3.55% a month earlier. That’s faster than the 3.35% pace expected by economists. The trim rate rose due to the movements of rent and passenger vehicle prices.

Another important indicator, a three-month moving average of underlying price pressures, rose to an annualized pace of 3.63% in December from 2.94% in November, according to Bloomberg calculations. The Bank of Canada follows this metric closely because it reveals shorter-term inflation trends. 

According to Bloomberg News, following the release of today’s CPI data, “the yield on two-year Canadian government bonds rose about four basis points to 3.857%…Traders in overnight swaps pushed back bets on when the Bank of Canada will start cutting rates to July, from as early as April before the release.” 

Bottom Line

This is the last major data release before the Bank of Canada meets again on January 24th. I concur with the widely held view that the rate pause will continue at the next meeting despite evidence that the economy is slowing. Governor Tiff Macklem will err on the side of caution before beginning to cut overnight rates. The last reading on wages showed a 5.4% y/y rise, and yesterday’s housing release showed a bump in sales. Macklem and Co. will keep their powder dry until they see an all-clear signal that core inflation is sustainably below 3%. 

Source: Dr. Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

7 Jan

Brisk Wage Gains in December Will Keep The BoC Watchful

Economics Insights

Posted by: Yen (Frank) Feng

Today’s StatsCanada Labour Force Survey for December was a mixed bag and far more robust than the weak headline figure suggests. Total employment in Canada barely budged, rising by a mere 100 jobs in the final month of last year. However, the labour force participation rate fell, leaving the unemployment rate at 5.8%. Most economists had been expecting considerably more robust job growth and a rising unemployment rate.

Canada has one of the world’s fastest-growing populations owing to high immigration levels. However, employment growth has been slower than labour force growth in recent months.

The employment rate–the proportion of the working-age population with jobs–trended downward in 2023 among core-aged men and women (aged 25 to 54).

The participation rate—the number of employed and unemployed people as a percentage of the population aged 15 and older—fell in December (-0.2 percentage points) to 65.4%. This was down from a recent peak of 65.7% in June. Most of the decline from June to December was attributable to a drop in the youth participation rate, which decreased 2.1 percentage points to 63.5% over the period. On a year-over-year basis, the labour force participation rate fell 3.3 percentage points to 85.4% among youth not attending school. At the same time, it declined 1.0 percentage points to 46.4% among youth who were students (not seasonally adjusted).

The participation rate held steady among those in the core-aged group (88.7%) and people aged 55 years and older (36.9%), compared with June 2023 and December 2022.

Total hours worked rose 0.4% month-over-month in December and 1.7% from a year earlier. That followed a 0.7% month-over-month drop in November.

Employment in professional, scientific and technical services increased by 46,000 (+2.4%) in December, following little change in the three previous months. This was the second monthly increase in the industry in 2023, the first having been a rise of 52,000 in August. On a year-over-year basis, employment in this industry was up by 78,000 (+4.2%) in December.

Following four months of little change, employment in health care and social assistance rose by 16,000 (+0.6%) in December, building on increases in June (+21,000) and July (+25,000). On a year-over-year basis, health care and social assistance employment increased by 124,000 (+4.8%) in December. According to the most recent data from the Job Vacancy and Wage Survey, the job vacancy rate in healthcare and social assistance was 5.3% in October 2023, down from a peak of 6.3% in April but still the highest rate across all sectors.

In December, employment fell in wholesale and retail trade (-21,000; -0.7%) for a third consecutive month. From August to December, work in the industry decreased by 80,000 (-2.7%). This followed gains from December 2022 to August 2023, when employment increased by 108,000 (+3.7%).

Employment rose in British Columbia (+18,000; +0.6%), Nova Scotia (+6,300; +1.3%), Saskatchewan (+4,800; +0.8%), and Newfoundland and Labrador (+2,400; +1.0%) in December, while it declined in Ontario (-48,000; -0.6%). Employment in other provinces was primarily unchanged.


The most concerning thing for the Bank of Canada was the acceleration in wage inflation to 5.4% y/y last month, compared to 4.8% in the prior two months. With Canadian productivity falling, this is particularly troublesome for the overall inflation outlook. For this reason, the Bank of Canada will continue to be cautious.

Bottom Line

The next Bank of Canada confab is on January 24, before which we will see the December inflation data on January 16. Given the mixed labour force survey, particularly the wage spike, the Bank of Canada will remain cautious. They will wait until inflation is sustained meaningfully before 3% before cutting the overnight policy rate for the first time this cycle.

Source: Dr. Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

3 Jan

Mortgage Renewal Benefits

Mortgage Tips

Posted by: Yen (Frank) Feng

Is your mortgage coming up for renewal? Do you know about all the incredible options renewing your mortgage can afford you? If not, we have all the details here on how to make your mortgage renewal work for you as we start to think about 2024.

Get a Better Rate

Are you aware that when you receive notice that your mortgage is coming up for renewal, this is the best time to shop around for a more favourable interest rate? At renewal time, it is easy to shop around or switch lenders for a preferable interest rate as it doesn’t break your mortgage. With interest rates expected to come down as we move into the New Year, taking some time to reach out to me and shopping the market could help save you money!

Consolidate Debt

Renewal time is also a great time to take a look at your existing debt and determine whether or not you want to consolidate it onto your mortgage. For some, this means consolidating your holiday credit card debt into your mortgage, for others it could be car loans, education, etc. Regardless of the type of debt, consolidating into your mortgage allows for one easy payment instead of juggling multiple loans. Plus, in most cases, the interest rate on your mortgage is less than you would be charged with credit card companies.

Start on that Reno

Do you have projects around the house you’ve been dying to get started on? Renewal time is a great opportunity for you to look at utilizing some of your home equity to help with home renovations so you can finally have that dream kitchen, updated bathroom, OR you can even utilize it to purchase a vacation property!

Change Your Mortgage Product

Are you not happy with your existing mortgage product? Perhaps you’re finding that your variable-rate or adjustable-rate mortgages are fluctuating too much and you want to lock in! Alternatively, maybe you want to switch to variable as interest rates start to level out. You can also utilize your renewal time to take advantage of a different payment or amortization schedule to help pay off your mortgage faster!

Change Your Lender

Not happy with your current lender? Perhaps a different bank has a lower rate or a mortgage product with terms that better suit your needs. A mortgage renewal is a great time to switch to a different bank or credit union to ensure that you are getting the value you want out of your mortgage if you are finding that your needs are not currently being met.

Regardless of how you feel about your current mortgage and what changes you may want to make, if your mortgage is coming up for renewal or is ready for renewal, don’t hesitate to reach out to your DLC Mortgage Expert today! I’d be happy to discuss your situation and review any changes that would be beneficial for you to reach your goals from shopping for new rates or utilizing that equity!