31 May

Good News Is Bad News For The Bank Of Canada

Economics Insights

Posted by: Yen Chi (Frank) Feng

The Canadian economy continues to show marked resilience to high-interest rates. Statistics Canada released data this morning showing real GDP rose at an above-consensus 3.1% annual rate in the first quarter of this year. The estimate for April growth was also firm, a harbinger of continued strength in Q2. The combined drags of the public sector strike and the Alberta wildfires didn’t cause a significant downdraft. 

First-quarter growth was driven by strong international trade and robust household spending. These factors were partly mitigated by slower inventory accumulation and declines in new housing construction and business investment in machinery and equipment. 

After two quarters of minimal growth, household spending rose for goods (+1.5%) and services (+1.3%) in the first quarter of 2023. Expenditures on durable goods (+3.3%) were driven by motor vehicles, including new trucks, vans, and sport utility vehicles (+7.8%). Spending on semi-durables (+4.3%) was led by garments (+4.5%), while spending on non-durable goods (-0.2%) declined slightly.

Service spending picked up in the first quarter of 2023, led by food and non-alcoholic beverage services (+4.4%), and alcoholic beverage services (+6.5%). Meanwhile, travel was on the rise, with expenditures by Canadians abroad up 6.8% in the first quarter, compared with a 3.3% decrease in the previous quarter.

These data do not portend a household sector overly burdened by rising mortgage and credit card payments. 

Coinciding with higher borrowing costs and slowing mortgage borrowing, housing investment fell 3.9% in the first quarter of 2023, the fourth consecutive quarterly decrease. The decline in investment was widespread—as new construction (-6.0%), renovations (-2.1%), and ownership transfer costs (-1.5%), which represents resale activity, were all down. 

We know housing activity has picked up considerably since the first quarter, undoubtedly adding to Q2 growth. Also expansionary is the persistent rise in employee compensation, led by salary gains in professional and personal services, manufacturing and construction.

One warning sign is the declining household savings rates and slower disposable income. Persistently high interest rates had a predominantly negative effect on net property income, as increases in interest income (+6.4%), mainly from deposits, did not keep pace with higher interest payments on mortgages (+14.7%) and consumer credit (+10.9%).

In contrast with lower disposable income, consumption expenditures (in nominal terms) rose 2.1% in the first quarter of 2023. This was faster than the 1.4% pace recorded in the fourth quarter of 2022, partly due to inflationary pressures. As a result, the household saving rate was 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023, down from 5.8% at the end of 2022. The household saving rate approached the pre-pandemic level, which averaged 2.1% in 2019.

Business incomes fell significantly in Q1, and judging from the stock market, corporate earnings news has also been disappointing across a wide array of sectors in the second quarter. 

Bottom Line

The strength in today’s data and the higher-than-expected inflation number for April will cause the Bank of Canada to seriously consider raising the overnight rate by 25 bps to 4.75% when they meet again next week. I think they will hold off to see the May employment and inflation data before they pull the trigger. 

Markets have already responded to the numbers. Short-term interest rates remain well above levels posted earlier this year, although that is mainly about the debt-ceiling issue in the U.S. The Bank’s statement will undoubtedly be rather hawkish.

 

Source: Dr. Sherry CooperChief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

26 May

Frequently Asked Mortgage Q&A

Mortgage Tips

Posted by: Yen Chi (Frank) Feng

New to mortgages? Have questions but not sure where to start? Here are the most frequent mortgage questions with answers:

1. What is the best interest rate I can qualify for?

Your credit score affects the interest rate you qualify for. Higher risk leads to higher rates. While the interest rate isn’t the most crucial factor in your mortgage, it is still important. However, opting for the lowest rate might mean losing pre-payment privileges or porting options. Consider your mortgage holistically, keeping your current and future needs in mind.

2. What credit score is needed to qualify for a mortgage?

If your credit score is 680 or above, you are seen as a strong candidate for a mortgage. Higher scores above 700 offer even lower rates. For those with lower credit scores, the size of the down payment becomes crucial. A sufficient down payment reduces lender risk, opening up lower rate options.

3. What happens if my credit score isn’t great?

There are five main things you can do to improve a low credit score.

    • Pay down credit cards so they’re below 70% of your limits. Revolving credit like credit cards have a more significant impact on credit scores than car loans, lines of credit, or other types of debt.
    • Limit the use of credit cards. Racking up a large amount and then paying it off in monthly instalments can hurt your credit score. If there is a balance at the end of the month, this also affects your score.
    • Check credit limits. If your lender is slower at reporting monthly transactions, this can have a significant impact on how other interested parties view your file. Ensure everything’s up to date as old bills that have been paid can come back to haunt you.
    • Keep old cards. Older credit is better credit. If you stop using older credit cards, the issuers may stop updating your accounts. As such, the cards can lose their weight in the credit formula and, therefore, may not be as valuable – even though you have had the cards for a long time. Use these cards periodically and then pay them off.
    • Don’t let mistakes build up. Always dispute any mistakes or situations that may harm your score. If, for instance, a cell phone bill is incorrect and the company will not amend it, you can dispute this by making the credit bureau aware of the situation.

4. What’s the maximum mortgage I can qualify for?

To determine what you can afford, try the My Mortgage Toolbox app (https://dlcapp.ca/app/yenchifrank-feng) available on the Apple App Store and Google Play. It offers helpful calculations for finding your affordable amount, estimating monthly payments, exploring payment frequencies, and more. You can even get pre-qualified through the app, and when you’re ready to shop, follow up with a proper mortgage pre-approval. This will help you establish your budget and gain clarity on your mortgage expenses.

5. How much money do I need for a down payment?

The minimum down payment required for purchasing a home is as follows:

  • Purchase price $500,00 or less: 5% of the purchase price
  • $500,000 to $999,999: 5% of the first $500,000 of the purchase price and  10% for the portion of the purchase price above $500,000
  • $1 million and over: 20% of the purchase price

It is advisable to aim for a 20% down payment to avoid mortgage default insurance and, in certain situations, secure a more favorable interest rate.

6. What happens if I don’t have the full down payment amount?

It can be hard to put together a down payment. Fortunately, there are many programs available that will allow you to utilize different forms of down payments through First Time Home Buyer Program, RRSP withdrawal or gifting from an immediate family member.

7. Should I go with a fixed- or variable-rate mortgage?

The answer to this question depends on your personal risk tolerance. If you are a first-time homebuyer or have a defined budget for your mortgage, it is wise to choose a fixed mortgage with predictable payments over a specific period. However, if you can handle the fluctuations of a variable-rate mortgage, it may save you money in the long run. Alternatively, you can opt for a variable rate but make payments based on what you would have paid with a fixed rate.

8. How much will my mortgage payments be?

Your monthly mortgage payment depends on various factors including your mortgage size, mortgage default insurance, mortgage amortization, interest rate, and payment frequency. To explore different mortgage and payment scenarios, you can use the My Mortgage Toolbox app (https://dlcapp.ca/app/yenchifrank-feng) available on the Apple App Store and Google Play. It offers a range of calculators to assist you in making informed decisions.

9. What amortization will work best for me?

The standard amortization period for a mortgage is typically 25 years, but you have the flexibility to choose a shorter or longer timeframe. Opting for a shorter amortization period has several benefits. Firstly, it allows you to become mortgage-free sooner. Additionally, paying off your mortgage in a shorter time reduces the overall interest you’ll pay. You also build equity in your home faster with a shorter amortization. However, keep in mind that choosing a shorter amortization means higher monthly payments and fewer total payments. If your income is irregular or you’re a first-time homebuyer with a large mortgage, a shorter amortization period may not be the best option as it can increase your regular payment amount and impact your cash flow.

10. How can I maximize my mortgage payments and own my home sooner?

Mortgage products typically offer prepayment privileges, allowing you to pay up to 20% of the principal per year, reducing both the amortization period and the overall mortgage length. Another effective method to accelerate mortgage payoff is by choosing accelerated bi-weekly payments instead of semi-monthly payments. With 26 payments per year, accelerated bi-weekly payments not only help pay off the mortgage faster but also result in significant long-term savings. Additionally, many lenders allow lump-sum payments of up to 20% of the original borrowed amount each year, providing further flexibility in reducing your mortgage balance.

11. Can I make lump-sum or other prepayments on my mortgage, or will I be penalized?

Before finalizing your mortgage, it is crucial to review the prepayment conditions specific to your lender and mortgage product. While many lenders permit lump-sum payments and increased mortgage payments up to a certain limit per year, “no frills” mortgage products with the lowest rates typically do not allow prepayments. Additionally, some lenders may restrict lump-sum payments to the mortgage’s anniversary date, while others allow spreading them throughout the year, up to the maximum allowed yearly amount.

12. If I have mortgage default insurance, do I need mortgage life insurance?

Yes. Mortgage life insurance is a life insurance policy on a homeowner, which will allow your family or dependents to pay off the mortgage on the home should something tragic happen to you. Mortgage default insurance is something lenders require you to purchase to cover their own assets if you have less than a 20% down payment. Mortgage life insurance is meant to protect the family of a homeowner and not the mortgage lender itself.

13. Is my mortgage portable?

Fixed-rate products usually have a portability option as lenders utilize a “blended” system where your current mortgage rate stays the same on the mortgage amount ported over to the new property, and the new balance is calculated using the current rate. With variable-rate mortgages, however, porting is usually not available. This means that when breaking your existing mortgage, a three-month interest penalty will be charged. This charge may or may not be reimbursed with your new mortgage. While porting typically ensures no penalty will be charged when you sell your existing property and buy a new one, it’s best to check with your mortgage professional for specific conditions before making any changes.

14. If I want to move before my mortgage term is up, what are my options?

This will depend greatly on your particular lender and the type of mortgage you have. While fixed mortgages are often portable, variable are not. Some lenders allow you to port your mortgage, but your sale and purchase have to happen on the same day, while others offer extended periods. As long as there is not too much time between the sale of your existing home and the purchase of the new home, as a rule of thumb most lenders will allow you to port the mortgage. In other words, you keep your existing mortgage and add the extra funds you need to buy the new house on top. The interest rate is a blend between your existing mortgage rate and the current rate at the time you require the extra money.

15. How much will I have to pay for closing costs?

As a general rule of thumb, it is recommended that you put aside at least 1.5% of the purchase price (in addition to the down payment) strictly to cover closing costs such as: property transfer taxes, lawyer/notary fee, survey costs, appraisal fee, title insurance, and a home inspection.

16. How do I ensure I get the best mortgage product and rate upon renewal at the end of my term?

The best way to ensure you receive the best mortgage product and rate at renewal is to enlist your mortgage professional to review your current mortgage product, financial situation and shop the market for you. A lot can change over a single mortgage term, and you can miss out on a lot of savings and options if you simply sign a renewal with your existing lender without consulting your mortgage professional.

Still have more questions? Reach out to your mortgage expert for the advice and expertise to ensure you get the best mortgage questions answered.

19 May

5 Steps to Getting a Mortgage

Mortgage Tips

Posted by: Yen Chi (Frank) Feng

While the mortgage process can be daunting, we have broken it down into five easy steps to help you get started!

1. Options: Your mortgage professional has access to 90+ lenders with dozens of solutions to suit your mortgage needs. During our initial consultation, your mortgage professional will review your situation and provide an overview of mortgage options that are best suited to your needs. From there, you can work together to complete your mortgage application and obtain financing.

2. Collection: When it comes to a mortgage application, you’re required to submit the following items to the lender: credit report, agreement of purchase and sale (or estimated mortgage amount if you are refinancing), proof of income/employment, down payment amount, identification, and solicitor information. Your mortgage professional is able to assist you with preparing, gathering, and sending this documentation.

3. Submission: Your mortgage professional will submit your mortgage application to the appropriate lender with the mortgage product that best suits your needs. As they work with dozens of lenders, from banks to credit unions to trusts and private options, they can leverage their negotiating power to get you the best mortgage product.

4. Approval: Once you have been approved for your mortgage, you will be required to sign. You will obtain approval documents including payment details, mortgage terms and privileges, and pre-funding conditions (if applicable). If the closing date is more than 30 days away, your mortgage professional can also hold the approval documents and monitor the market. When you reach four weeks away from closing, they can help finalize the approval documentation.

5. Closing: This is the final step to homeownership, where your signed documents are submitted to the lender with all supporting information. The lender will review and approve the final documents and send their instruction package to your lawyer. When you meet with your lawyer, they will require final identification and signatures and review your closing costs. On the closing day, the mortgage funds will be transferred to your lawyer to close the sale.

If you are looking to purchase your first home, or a new home, in the coming months, reach out to a your mortgage expert for the advice and expertise to ensure you get the best mortgage product for YOU.

15 May

High Interest Rates Have Not Slowed the Labour Market Sufficiently

Economics Insights

Posted by: Yen Chi (Frank) Feng

The Canadian labour market has done it again, blowing past expectations for the fifth straight month. In April, a whopping 41,400 new jobs were added, more than double what economists predicted. Since February, monthly employment growth has averaged 33,000, following cumulative increases of 219,000 in December 2022 and January 2023.

The employment rate—the share of the population aged 15 and older—held steady at 62.4% for the third consecutive month in April. This is particularly noteworthy given the population grew by more than a million people in 2022 and is slated to snowball this year, thanks to immigration.

However, there is a catch. All the job growth in April was in part-time positions, while full-time jobs decreased by 6,200. But even with this slight hiccup, the labour market is still going strong, which means the Bank of Canada will likely continue its wait-and-see approach, even as we all wonder when the first rate cut will happen. 

The jobless rate held steady at a near-record low of 5.0%, unchanged since December 2022. This remained near the record low of 4.9% observed in June and July 2022. Compared with April 2022, the unemployment rate was down 0.3 percentage points in April 2023.

Wage Inflation Remains High

Of great concern to the Bank of Canada, average hourly wages rose by 5.2% on a yearly basis in a further sign of the labour market’s resilience, with wage growth now above the annual rate of inflation, which was 4.3% in March. It is not that wage inflation caused the surge in the Consumer Price Index last year, but continued vigorous wage hikes become impended in wage-price spiralling as higher costs give businesses cover to rate prices.

Bottom Line

The BoC, despite this report, isn’t likely to budge from its current policy stance. As more and more immigrants enter the workforce, the traditional markers of a strong jobs report are evolving. Even though the unemployment rate remains steady at 5%, it may indicate that we’ve hit a new equilibrium point. That’s why this seemingly “surprising” report doesn’t hold the same weight as it would have in the past.

In addition, the BoC can quickly point out the narrowness of sector hiring and the trend of full-time employment declining while part-time jobs rise. After today’s release, the BoC’s decision to stay on the sidelines is a wise move. But it also means that the Bank will not be in a hurry to cut rates this year.

 

Source: Dr. Sherry CooperChief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

12 May

Make Your Mortgage Work for You

Mortgage Tips

Posted by: Yen Chi (Frank) Feng

When it comes to mortgages, it can be easy to get overwhelmed by the sheer number of options. Below are some of the mortgage details that you should understand to ensure that you are getting the best mortgage for YOU:

Interest Rate Type

Interest rate is one of the major components to your mortgage, and it is important to decide whether you want a fixed-rate, variable-rate, or protected (capped) variable-rate mortgage.

A fixed-rate mortgage is ideal for new home owners or those on a fixed income, who are more comfortable with a stable monthly payment.

A variable-rate mortgage is ideal for individuals who have room in their budget and want to take advantage of potential interest rate drops – keep in mind, with this mortgage you pay more if the rates go up!

Lastly, the protected (capped) variable-rate mortgage operates similarly to a variable-rate, except with a maximum (or capped) rate, allowing you to take advantage of interest rate decreases while never paying above a set amount should the rates rise.

Amortization

This is the life of your mortgage and is typically a 25-year period, whereby you would pay off the entirety of the loan. You can choose a shorter term, which would result in higher payments but allow you to pay less interest over the lifetime of your mortgage and be mortgage-free faster! Or, you can opt for a longer amortization period, which allows for smaller monthly payments.

Payment Schedule

This is the frequency that you make mortgage payments and ranges from monthly to bi-monthly, bi-weekly, accelerated bi-weekly, or even weekly payments. There are many great calculators on My Mortgage Toolbox app (available through Google Play and the Apple App Store) that can help you calculate and compare these payment schedules to see what works best for you.

Mortgage Term

The standard mortgage term is 5 years and refers to the length of time for which options are chosen and agreed upon, such as the interest rate. When the term is up, you have the ability to renegotiate your mortgage at the interest rate of that time and choose the same or different options.

Open vs. Closed

Open mortgages give you the option to increase mortgage payments or make lump sum deposits on your loan. A closed mortgage does not allow additional payments without penalties.

High Ratio vs. Conventional

A conventional mortgage is where you put the standard 20% down on your home. However, as not everyone is able to do this, many buyers will end up with a high-ratio mortgage product. High-ratio mortgages need to be insured due to financial institutions only being allowed to lend up to 80 percent of the home’s purchase price WITHOUT mortgage default insurance. Therefore, if you choose a high-ratio mortgage over a conventional one, you will pay a monthly insurance premium.

Contact me today to get started on your home buying journey with expert advice and solutions to suit YOUR unique needs!

5 May

Mortgages for the Self-Employed

Mortgage Tips

Posted by: Yen Chi (Frank) Feng

Approximately 20% of Canadians are self-employed, making this an important segment in the mortgage and financing space. When it comes to self-employed individuals seeking a mortgage, there are some key things to note as this process can differ from the standard mortgage.

In order to obtain a mortgage as a self-employed individual, most lenders require personal tax Notices of Assessment and respective T1 general forms to be included with the mortgage application for the previous two years. Typically, individuals who can provide this proof of income – and have acceptable income levels – have little issue obtaining a mortgage product and rates available to the traditional borrower.

Self-Employed Categories

For those self-employed individuals who cannot provide the Revenue Canada documents, you will be required to put down 20% and may have higher interest rates. If you can provide the tax documents but don’t have enough stated income due to write-offs, then you have to put down a minimum of 10% with standard interest rates. If you are able to put less than a 20% down payment when relying on stated income, the default insurance premiums are higher. If you can provide the tax documents and have a high enough income, then there are no restrictions.

Documentation Requirements

For self-employed individuals, the following documents must be provided, in addition to your standard documentation:

  • Two years of T1 general forms.
  • For incorporated businesses, two years of accountant-prepared financial statements (Income Statement and Balance Sheet).
  • Two most recent years of Personal NOAs (Notice of Assessments) and tax returns.
  • Potentially 6-12 months of business bank statements.
  • Confirmation that HST/Source Deductions are current.

Income Calculation

When it comes to calculating income for a self-employed application, lenders will either take an average of two years’ income or your most recent annual income if it’s lower.

If you have an incorporated business, some lenders may be able to use the most recent two years’ financials (prepared by the accountant) to determine your annual income.

If you’re self-employed and looking to qualify for a mortgage, or simply have one, reach out to your mortgage professional today! I can work with you to ensure you have the necessary documentation, discuss your options, and obtain a pre-approval to help you understand how much you qualify for.